Artificial Intelligence / AI 0014 · Atom · ~20 seconds
The Overreach Pattern
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The field's signature failure is a correct long-range vision priced at a wildly optimistic timeline.
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The Dartmouth proposal expected significant progress from ten people in one summer; it got a seventy-year research program.
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When you hear a confident five-year AI timeline, you are hearing the genre that has been wrong in both directions for seventy years.