SW StudyWalks

Artificial Intelligence  /  AI 0298  ·  Atom · ~20 seconds

Evidence Shrinks the World

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State

The probability of a claim given evidence is its share among only the cases where the evidence holds — prior becomes posterior, in the smaller room.

Show

Wake to rain: the panel shrinks to 300 rainy worlds, and market belief drops from 0.78 to 150 of 300 — 0.5.

Watch for

The market never changed overnight; the information did, and the drop is its exact price.