Artificial Intelligence / AI 0300 · Atom · ~20 seconds
Base-Rate Neglect
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State
Reading a flagged result from a 90-percent-accurate test as 90 percent certainty is base-rate neglect — accuracy answers a different question entirely.
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"How often does the test flag carriers?" is a share of the 40; "how often are the flagged carrying?" is a share of the 132.
Watch for
The questions face opposite directions; no manipulation of the first number alone answers the second.