Artificial Intelligence / AI 0304 · Atom · ~20 seconds
The Transposed Conditional
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State
Swapping "the probability of the evidence, given innocence" for "the probability of innocence, given the evidence" is the transposed conditional — different fractions of different rooms.
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In the clinic, 36 of 40 versus 36 of 132; in court, the same swap is called the prosecutor's fallacy.
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On hearing any conditional probability, ask which room is the denominator — three seconds, families of error prevented.
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