Logic / Logic 350 · Atom · ~20 seconds
Base Rates
Video not yet published
to the StudyWalks catalog
to the StudyWalks catalog
State
The base rate is how common something is before any specific evidence. Ignoring it makes rare things look common whenever tests can err.
Show
A rare condition plus a decent test still yields mostly false alarms — rarity outvotes accuracy.
Watch for
Base-rate neglect is the reasoning error with the highest real-world body count: medicine, security, hiring.