Logic / Logic 434 · Atom · ~20 seconds
Statistical Claims in Media
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Four questions for every reported number: What's the source? What was the sample? What's the base rate? Compared to what?
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"Risk doubled" — from one in a million to two. All four questions, one headline, verdict reversed.
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Relative risk without base rate (350) is the press release's favorite instrument. The four questions take fifteen seconds; skipping them is a choice.